Patrick and Louis-Etienne, in collaboration with Mike Wotton and Dave Martell at the University of Toronto, and Rich Fleming at the CFS in Sault Ste. Marie have finally published our paper on how historical spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition. And the result? Defoliation can both increase and decrease ignition risk, depending on seasonal timing, time since defoliation, and ecoregion. You can check it out here.
Figure 2 - Fire and eastern spruce budworm disturbance history in Ontario. (A) Historical fire activity expressed as the number of lightning-caused ignitions per square kilometer from 1963 to 2000. (B) Cumulative defoliation between 1941 and 2000. Color intensity indicates the number of years of observed moderate and severe defoliation. The two ecoregions used in this study are indicated.